Senior Care Franchise Statistics: SBA Lending Monitor, Census Data and FDD Terms

Senior care franchise statistics: the latest SBA quarter

Senior care franchise lending fell in loan count and rose in dollars in the latest quarter. In fiscal 2026 Q3 (April to June 2026), SBA lenders approved 77 loans (7(a) and 504) to franchise-coded senior care businesses (NAICS 621610 or 624120), down 12.5% from 88 in April to June 2025, according to the SBA 7(a) and 504 FOIA files, as of June 30, 2026. Approved dollars rose 71.8%, from $27.5 million to $47.2 million.

All franchise-coded SBA loans were flat over the same quarter (1,963 vs 1,968, -0.3%), and their dollars rose 25.9%. Senior care’s share of franchise-coded loans slipped from 4.5% to 3.9%. Over the latest four quarters (July 2025 to June 2026), senior care franchise loans rose 6.7% to 272, while all franchise-coded loans rose 23.7% to 8,545.

Quarterly counts are small (between 21 and 88 loans per quarter since FY2015), so one quarter moves easily. The broader SBA franchise loan report covers all franchise sectors; this page tracks only the senior care slice.

Is senior care franchise lending growing faster than all franchise lending?

Over a decade, yes. Senior care franchise-coded SBA loans rose from 115 in FY2015 to 263 in FY2025, up 128.7% (8.6% a year). All franchise-coded loans rose 16.9% over the same years, from 6,600 to 7,715. In dollars, senior care franchise lending grew 194.5% ($31.2M to $91.8M) against 45.9% for all franchise loans (SBA 7(a) and 504 FOIA files, as of June 30, 2026).

Senior care’s share of franchise-coded SBA loans doubled, from 1.7% in FY2015 to 3.4% in FY2025. In the first three quarters of FY2026 the share is 3.4%.

The latest twelve months do not repeat the pattern on loan count: senior care franchise loans grew 6.7% against 23.7% for all franchise loans. On dollars, senior care still grew faster (57.5% vs 46.6%).

How franchised is senior care? Census establishment and firm counts

Franchising is more common in non-medical senior services than in medical home health. In the 2017 Economic Census franchise file, franchise establishments were 13.5% of the 31,533 establishments in services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 624120) and 4.1% of the 33,611 home health care establishments (NAICS 621610). Across both, 5,642 of 65,144 establishments (8.7%) were franchises.

The niche is small inside franchising: the 5,642 senior care franchise establishments were 1.1% of the 498,234 franchise establishments in the 2017 file. Among 271 industries with a published franchise share, 624120 ranked 39 and 621610 ranked 117; the median industry share was 3.2%.

Franchised senior care establishments were larger by headcount and smaller by receipts than independents. A franchised 621610 establishment averaged 62.2 employees and $1,989K in receipts in 2017, against 41.5 employees and $2,536K for non-franchise establishments. In 624120 the figures were 46.1 vs 37.0 employees and $1,112K vs $1,616K. Across all industries in the file, franchise establishments had higher receipts per establishment than non-franchise ones ($3,468K vs $2,111K). Franchisor-owned units were 5.0% and 5.9% of senior care franchise establishments, against 16.7% across the file, so senior care franchising is almost entirely franchisee-owned.

2017 is the latest year: the 2022 Economic Census franchise question was never tabulated for the United States (Census release schedule; no 2022 franchise API dataset). For comparison with independents across all sectors, see franchise vs independent business.

Firm-level check: the Annual Business Survey, 2020 to 2023

The Annual Business Survey asks employer firms whether they operate all or part as a franchise. In data year 2023 (2024 ABS), 8.7% of responding home health care firms (NAICS 6216) said yes (958 of 11,071), with a standard error of 1.6 points. The figure for individual and family services (NAICS 6241, which contains 624120 plus child, youth and other family services) was 11.1%, against 4.7% for all sectors.

The 6216 series is noisy: 6.4% in 2020, 9.5% in 2021, 5.3% in 2022 and 8.7% in 2023. The 2020 to 2023 change of 2.3 points is 1.02 standard errors, so the survey shows no clear trend. ABS counts firms, not locations, and its percentages cover only firms that answered (ABS methodology). Owner characteristics are covered in franchise owner demographics.

Demand context: the 65-and-over population

The Census 2023 National Population Projections (main series) put the population age 65 and over at 63.3 million in 2025, rising to 75.8 million in 2035 and 82.1 million in 2050. The 85-and-over group grows fastest of the age bands shown: from 7.0 million in 2025 to 11.2 million in 2035 (58.6%) and 17.4 million in 2050. The Census Bureau projects that people 65 and over outnumber children in 2029 (Census release CB23-189).

The newer Vintage 2025 estimates count 64.6 million people 65 and over on July 1, 2025 (18.9% of the population), up 15.5% since 2020 while the total population grew 3.1% (Census Vintage 2025). The 2023 projection for 2025 sits 1.3 million below that estimate, so the projection starts below the latest count.

Workforce data point the same way. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts 4,677,100 home health and personal care aide jobs in 2025 and projects 18% growth from 2025 to 2035 (BLS Occupational Outlook). Private employment in NAICS 621610 rose from 1,407,028 in 2017 to 1,803,516 in 2025 (28.2%), and in 624120 from 1,720,300 to 2,715,774 (57.9%) (BLS QCEW for 621610 and 624120). These figures are context: they describe demand and industry size, not the cause of any change in franchise lending.

Market-size estimates are less certain. IBISWorld puts the U.S. home care providers industry at $191.6 billion in 2026 (IBISWorld, paywalled method, broader than the two NAICS codes and not franchise-specific). No second estimate could be opened and checked, so no range is shown.

What senior care FDDs charge and require

Senior care is one of the cheaper franchise sectors to enter. In the site’s 259-FDD dataset (one current FDD per brand from Minnesota’s CARDS database, issued 2025 to 2026), the 18 senior and in-home care brands had a median Item 7 range of $101,800 to $182,425. That low end ranks 2 of 14 sectors (1 = lowest). The 241 other brands had a median of $284,850 to $638,702. See franchise initial investment for every sector.

Recurring fees sit slightly below the sample: a median royalty of 5.0% of sales (all other brands 6.0%) and a median brand fund contribution of 1.0% (2.0%). The median initial franchise fee was $50,000, close to the $49,000 median elsewhere (franchise royalty rates).

Owner involvement is stricter than average. Item 15 lets a manager run the unit in 50.0% of senior care FDDs, against 73.4% of other brands, and 50.0% require the owner to work full time (semi-absentee franchises). Item 19 financial performance representations appear in 88.9% of senior care FDDs; this report does not repeat them.

The 18 brands include 13 in-home care franchises and 5 other senior services (move management, placement advice, residential assisted living, adult day care). The in-home group alone had a median Item 7 of $102,475 to $190,700. For lower-cost options across sectors, see franchises under $100k.

Territories defined by population and by seniors

Every senior care FDD in the sample defines its territory by population or by a count of a target group, against 51.9% of the other 241 brands. Senior care ranks 1 of 14 sectors on this measure. 55.6% of senior care FDDs, and 69.2% of the in-home care FDDs, size the territory by the number of people 65 and over, the highest rate of any sector; only 18.3% of other brands use an age or other demographic count.

In-home care territories run from 100,000 to 500,000 total residents where a total is stated, and from at least 10,000 to about 40,000 residents age 65 or older where a senior count is stated. All 13 in-home care FDDs grant a protected territory, and 84.6% of them tie it to a performance requirement, against 25.9% of protected territories elsewhere. How territory clauses work in general is covered in franchise territory rights.

Medical vs non-medical home care, and licensing

The two NAICS codes mark the line. Home health care (621610) is defined by skilled nursing in the home (NAICS 621610); non-medical home care, homemaker services and companionship sit in 624120 (NAICS 624120). Medicare pays for home health only when a homebound patient needs part-time or intermittent skilled care from a Medicare-certified agency, and it does not pay for personal care when that is the only care needed (Medicare.gov).

Most franchise brands in the sample sell non-medical care, yet 73.9% of senior care franchise SBA loans since FY2015 (1,494 of 2,022) were recorded under 621610. The loan NAICS is chosen at application and does not always match how the brand describes its service.

Licensing is set by each state and covers non-medical care in some states. Texas requires home and community support services agencies, including agencies providing personal assistance services, to be licensed by Texas Health and Human Services (Texas HHS). Illinois licenses home services agencies through its Department of Public Health, which describes those services as not medical (Illinois IDPH). Check the rules of the state where the territory sits; this page is not legal advice.

What to watch next quarter

SBA’s next FOIA release (loans through September 30, 2026) will close FY2026. Through three quarters FY2026 has 208 senior care franchise loans; FY2025 had 263 for the full year. Watch whether the senior care share of franchise-coded loans (3.9% in the latest quarter) holds above the 1.7% of FY2015.

Watch the non-franchise side too. All senior care SBA loans, franchise or not, fell 32.7% in the latest four quarters (1,171 to 788) while franchise-coded senior care loans rose; this report does not test why. The franchise-coded share of senior care loans was 35.1% from June 2025 to June 2026.

The Census Bureau lists the 2024 Annual Business Survey for December 3, 2026 (Census upcoming releases), which will add a data year to the firm-level table.

Update schedule

This monitor is refreshed after each quarterly SBA FOIA release (about one month after quarter end), after each Annual Business Survey release, and when the FDD sample is re-pulled. Last update: 2026-10-09.