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Evidence review

Franchise Industry Growth: How Fast It Really Is and How Accurate the Forecasts Have Been

An evidence review of 16 editions of the Franchising Economic Outlook (2010 to 2026), scored against later estimates and checked against Census Bureau data.
Updated Next update: after the 2027 Franchising Economic Outlook (expected February 2027); Census ABS calendar release 2026-12-03By the Editorial TeamData: CC BY 4.0
A wall calendar and a stack of annual reports with colored tabbed pages on an office shelf, soft daylight, documentary style, no people, no readable text
Verdict

Franchise industry growth in the US has run at about 1.5% a year in establishments since 2015: the IFA/FRANdata series rises from 720,458 units in 2015 to an estimated 832,521 in 2025. The industry’s own forecasts usually land within 1% of the next edition’s estimate, but the 2025 forecast overshot by 2.3%.

832,521US franchise establishments, 2025 estimate, up 1.3% on 2024IFA/FRANdata, 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook, PDF p. 9
+2.27%Miss on the 2025 establishment forecast (851,402 projected vs 832,521 estimated a year later)Derived from the 2025 and 2026 editions (D-rows in the fact sheet)
0.55%Mean absolute error of establishment forecasts over 9 comparable years, 2012 to 2025 (bias +0.23%)Derived from 13 Franchising Economic Outlook editions
4.7%Franchise share of employer firms, Census ABS reference year 2023 (2024 ABS), vs 4.9% in reference year 2019U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey, reference years 2019 and 2023

The evidence in brief

  • US franchise establishments grew about 1.46% a year from 2015 to 2025 and 1.23% a year from 2019 to 2025 (pandemic included), per the latest IFA/FRANdata vintages; the 2026 edition estimates 1.3% growth in 2025 and projects 1.5% for 2026 (to 845,009).
  • Across 9 comparable years (2012 to 2025), establishment forecasts missed the next edition’s estimate by 0.55% on average, with a small upward bias of +0.23%: 5 over-forecasts and 4 under-forecasts. That is not a systematic overshoot.
  • The 2025 forecast is the exception: establishments were over-forecast by 2.27%, employment by 2.47% and output by 3.21%, the largest misses outside the 2020 pandemic year and the rebasing years.
  • Revisions change the verdict. The 2025 edition put 2024 at 830,876 establishments, 1.12% above the 821,589 projection; the 2026 edition revised 2024 to 821,837, within 0.03% of that projection.
  • The series has been rebased at least three times. The 2017 rebase cut the 2015 level by 7.94% and the 2011 rebase cut 2009 by 13.61%, so levels from different editions should not be compared directly.
  • Census data measure something narrower. The 2017 Economic Census counted 498,234 franchise employer establishments in surveyed industries (66.5% of the IFA-series figure), and the franchise share of employer firms in the Annual Business Survey moved from 4.9% to 4.7% between reference years 2019 and 2023.
  • The 2026 edition projects child services (4.3%) and commercial and residential services (3.2%) as the fastest-growing business lines in 2026, but it also redrew the business lines: its 2022 quick service restaurant count is 43.6% higher than the 2025 edition’s for the same year.

Verdict: franchise industry growth and forecast accuracy

Verdict on growth. The best evidence supports US franchise establishment growth of about 1.2% to 1.5% a year over the last decade: 1.46% a year from 2015 to 2025 and 1.23% a year from 2019 to 2025, using the latest IFA/FRANdata vintages. The 2025 estimate is 1.3% (832,521 establishments), slower than the 2.6% now estimated for 2023 and the 1.6% for 2024. Employment grew more slowly (0.55% a year, 2019 to 2025) and nominal output faster (2.24% a year, before inflation).

Verdict on forecasts. Across 9 comparable years, establishment forecasts missed the next edition’s estimate by 0.55% on average (employment 0.73%, output 0.9%), with a mild upward lean: bias +0.23% on establishments, +0.46% on employment. The brief’s hypothesis that the outlook has over-forecast recent years holds for 2025 and for employment in 2022 to 2025, but not for establishments in 2023 and 2024, which were first reported as beating the forecast. It is not a decade-long pattern: the large misses cluster in 2020 and 2025, years when growth slowed abruptly, and around methodology breaks.

Grades used in this review. A = government statistics with a documented frame and published sampling error or full enumeration. B = commissioned estimates with a published method and multi-year series but proprietary inputs and periodic rebasing. C = press releases, one-page summaries and member surveys without probability sampling. Every source is graded in the last table.

Table 1Forecast scorecard: each Franchising Economic Outlook projection vs the next edition's estimate, US, 2010 to 2025
Target yearMeasureForecast editionProjectedLater editionLater estimateError (units)Error (%)Projected growth (%)Later growth (%)Growth error (pp)Basis status
2,010Establishments2010901,0932011765,723135,37017.6820.31.7break
2,010Employment20109,558,00020117,614,0001,944,00025.530.40.6-0.2break
2,010Output2010868.32011706.6161.722.882.83.4-0.6break
2,011Establishments2011784,8022012735,57149,2316.692.5-0.63.1break
2,011Employment20117,808,00020127,934,000-126,000-1.592.51.90.6break
2,011Output2011739.92012745.0-5.1-0.684.75.3-0.6break
2,012Establishments2012749,4992014747,3592,1400.291.91.50.4comparable
2,012Employment20128,102,00020148,127,000-25,000-0.312.12.3-0.2comparable
2,012Output2012782.02014768.0141.8254.70.3comparable
2,014Establishments2014770,3682015769,6836850.091.71.60.1comparable
2,014Employment20148,510,00020158,569,000-59,000-0.692.32.8-0.5comparable
2,014Output2014839.02015844.0-5-0.594.74.9-0.2comparable
2,015Establishments2015781,7942016782,573-779-0.11.61.7-0.1comparable
2,015Employment20158,816,00020168,834,000-18,000-0.22.93-0.1comparable
2,015Output2015889.02016892.0-3-0.345.45.6-0.2comparable
2,016Establishments2016795,9322017732,84263,0908.611.71.70break
2,016Employment20169,112,00020177,636,0001,476,00019.333.13.5-0.4break
2,016Output2016944.02017674.027040.065.85.80break
2,017Establishments2017744,4372018745,290-853-0.111.61.60comparable
2,017Employment20177,885,00020187,881,0004,0000.053.33.10.2comparable
2,017Output2017710.02018713.2-3.2-0.455.35.6-0.3comparable
2,018Establishments2018759,2362020760,476-1,240-0.161.91.60.3provider change
2,018Employment20188,172,00020208,207,599-35,599-0.433.72.90.8provider change
2,018Output2018757.22020760.3-3.1-0.416.25.50.7provider change
2,020Establishments2020785,3162021753,77031,5464.191.5-2.64.1shock
2,020Employment20208,666,14120217,500,0001,166,14115.552.8-11.214shock
2,020Output2020819.62021670.0149.622.324.1-14.919shock
2,021Establishments2021780,1882022774,9655,2230.673.52.80.7comparable
2,021Employment20218,300,00020228,192,600107,4001.31n/a8.8n/acomparable
2,021Output2021780.02022787.7-7.7-0.9816.416.30.1comparable
2,022Establishments2022792,0142023790,4921,5220.192.220.2comparable
2,022Employment20228,449,16220238,438,64010,5220.123.130.1comparable
2,022Output2022826.62023825.41.20.154.94.80.1comparable
2,023Establishments2023805,4362024806,270-834-0.11.92.2-0.3comparable
2,023Employment20238,692,51320248,665,51726,9960.3132.90.1comparable
2,023Output2023860.12024858.51.60.194.24.20comparable
2,024Establishments2024821,5892025830,876-9,287-1.121.92.4-0.5comparable
2,024Employment20248,886,55520258,792,42394,1321.072.62.20.4comparable
2,024Output2024893.92025896.9-3-0.334.13.90.2comparable
2,025Establishments2025851,4022026832,52118,8812.272.51.31.2comparable
2,025Employment20259,005,75720268,788,313217,4442.472.40.61.8comparable
2,025Output2025936.42026907.329.13.214.41.13.3comparable
Source: Franchise Consultants and Brokers analysis of IFA Franchising Economic Outlook editions 2010 to 2026 (PwC, IHS, FRANdata). Output in $ billions, nominal. 'break' = level rebased between editions; 'shock' = 2020. Download CSV
Figure 1Projected vs later-estimated growth in US franchise establishments, 2012 to 2025Each edition's forecast for its year vs the next available edition; 2020 omitted (projected 1.5%, estimated -2.6%)
Projected growthLater estimate20121.9% vs 1.5%20141.7% vs 1.6%20151.6% vs 1.7%20161.7% vs 1.7%20171.6% vs 1.6%20181.9% vs 1.6%20213.5% vs 2.8%20222.2% vs 2.0%20231.9% vs 2.2%20241.9% vs 2.4%20252.5% vs 1.3%
Source: IFA Franchising Economic Outlook editions 2012 to 2026; Franchise Consultants and Brokers scorecard. Download data (CSV)

Original analysis: how we calculated it

Forecast scorecard (establishments, employment, output)

Formula
Level error = (projection - next edition's estimate) / estimate x 100; MAPE = mean |error|; bias = mean error
Inputs
F-rows for each edition's projection and the next edition's estimate; D-rows headed 'Forecast error' and 'Mean absolute percentage error'
Result
Establishments: MAPE 0.55%, bias +0.23% (5 over, 4 under), 9 comparable years. Employment: MAPE 0.73%, bias +0.46%. Output: MAPE 0.9%, bias +0.30%.
Limitations
The 'later estimate' is itself an estimate and can be revised again; 2013 and 2019 editions were not located; break years are scored but excluded from the averages.

Revision tracker

Formula
Revision = (revising edition's value - earlier edition's estimate) / earlier estimate x 100
Inputs
Consecutive editions' figures for the same year (F-rows)
Result
Routine IHS revisions were 0.1% or less; FRANdata cut 2024 by 1.09% in the 2026 edition; rebasings moved levels by -7.94% (2015) and -13.61% (2009).
Limitations
Only years printed in both editions can be compared; the 2021 edition printed 2020 employment and output rounded.

Spliced establishment series, 2013 to 2026

Formula
For each year, the latest edition on the post-2017 basis; CAGR = (end / start)^(1/years) - 1
Inputs
2017 August update, 2018, 2020, 2022 to 2026 editions
Result
697,944 (2013) to 832,521 (2025 estimate); 1.46% a year 2015 to 2025; 1.81% a year 2021 to 2025.
Limitations
Mixes IHS Markit (to 2015) and FRANdata (2016 on) estimates; the handover moved the 2016 level by 0.35%.

Government cross-check

Formula
Census count / IFA-series count for the same year; ABS share change in points
Inputs
Economic Census 2007, 2012, 2017 bulk files; ABS bulk files for reference years 2019 to 2023; IFA editions
Result
Census establishments equal 58.8%, 54.7% and 66.5% of the IFA figure in 2007, 2012 and 2017; ABS franchise share of employer firms 4.9% to 4.7% (reference years 2019 to 2023).
Limitations
Different units (firms vs establishments) and scope (employer, surveyed industries); franchise identification depends on respondents.

Sector growth and reclassification

Formula
Projected growth = 2026 projection / 2025 estimate - 1; reclassification gap = 2026-edition value / 2025-edition value - 1 for 2022
Inputs
S01 to S19 (2026 and 2025 edition business-line tables)
Result
Child services 4.3% and commercial and residential services 3.2% lead 2026; 2022 quick service restaurants differ by 43.6% between editions at the same total.
Limitations
Business-line definitions are FRANdata's and changed in 2026; projections, not outcomes.

Franchise establishments: the spliced 2013 to 2026 series

The spliced series below uses, for each year, the most recent edition that reports it, and keeps the pre-2017 levels on a separate line because they were built on a different benchmark. On the current basis, US franchise establishments rose from 697,944 in 2013 to an estimated 832,521 in 2025, a net gain of 112,063 since 2015.

Two breaks are marked. In January 2017 IHS Markit rebased the series to PwC’s 2016 business-format benchmark, which lowered the 2015 count from 782,573 to 720,458. In 2020 FRANdata took over; its 2016 figure (735,847) sits 0.35% above the last IHS Markit figure for that year (733,297), so the handover itself is small.

The only year of decline is 2020: 753,770 establishments, down 2.6% (2021 edition). Growth since then has ranged between 1.3% and 2.8% a year on the latest vintages, with 2025 the slowest. For state-level counts see franchise statistics by state; this review stays national.

Figure 2US franchise establishments, 2013 to 2026, latest vintage per yearPost-2017 basis vs the pre-2017 IHS basis; 2025 is an estimate and 2026 a projection
Current basis (2017 rebase on)Pre-2017 basis0250,000500,000750,0001,000,000845,009795,93220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Rebase and IHS to FRANdataPandemic
Source: IFA Franchising Economic Outlook editions 2016 to 2026 (latest vintage per year). Download data (CSV)
Table 2US franchise establishments by year, latest vintage on each basis, 2013 to 2026
YearEstablishments (current basis)Source editionStatusPre-2017 basisPre-2017 source edition
2,013697,944Aug 2017Estimate757,8572016
2,014708,9742018Estimate769,7822016
2,015720,4582018Estimate782,5732016
2,016735,8472020Estimate795,9322016
2,017748,7522020Estimate
2,018760,4762022Estimate
2,019773,6032023Estimate
2,020753,7702024Estimate
2,021774,9652025Estimate
2,022788,6832026Estimate
2,023808,9112026Estimate
2,024821,8372026Estimate
2,025832,5212026First estimate
2,026845,0092026Projection
Source: IFA Franchising Economic Outlook editions as listed; Franchise Consultants and Brokers splice. Download CSV

How each edition revised the year before

Each edition re-estimates the year before. Most revisions are small, but three kinds are not: rebasings, provider changes and the newest FRANdata revisions.

Routine IHS revisions between 2014 and 2018 moved the prior-year baseline by 0.1% or less. FRANdata’s revisions are larger: 2022 was cut 0.2% in the 2024 edition, 2023 raised 0.62% in the 2025 edition and then cut 0.29% in the 2026 edition, and 2024 was cut 1.09% (9,039 units) in the 2026 edition.

The 2024 case shows why the scorecard reports two comparisons. Against the first estimate, the 2024 forecast looks 1.12% too low, and IFA’s 2025 release described 2024 as beating its projection. Against the latest vintage, the same forecast is off by only 0.03%. For the five FRANdata forecasts from 2021 to 2025, the mean absolute error against the latest vintage is 0.76% with a bias of +0.58%.

Table 3Revisions to the prior-year estimate between consecutive outlook editions, US, 2009 to 2024
Year revisedMeasureEarlier editionEarlier valueRevising editionRevised valueRevision (units)Revision (%)Reason
2,009Establishments2010883,2922011763,094-120,198-13.61Rebased on 2007 Economic Census
2,010Establishments2011765,7232012740,335-25,388-3.32Provider change, PwC to IHS
2,011Establishments2012735,5712014736,1145430.07Routine revision
2,013Establishments2014757,4532015757,8574040.05Routine revision
2,014Establishments2015769,6832016769,782990.01Routine revision
2,015Establishments2016782,5732017720,458-62,115-7.94Rebased to PwC 2016 benchmark
2,016Establishments2017732,8422018733,2974550.06Routine revision
2,017Establishments2018745,2902020748,7523,4620.46Provider change, IHS to FRANdata
2,020Establishments2021753,7702022753,77000Routine revision
2,020Employment20217,500,00020227,532,30532,3050.43Routine revision
2,020Output2021670.02022677.27.21.07Routine revision
2,021Establishments2022774,9652023774,96500Routine revision
2,022Establishments2023790,4922024788,914-1,578-0.2Routine revision
2,022Employment20238,438,64020248,421,799-16,841-0.2Routine revision
2,022Output2023825.42024823.7-1.7-0.2Routine revision
2,023Establishments2024806,2702025811,2474,9770.62Routine revision
2,023Employment20248,665,51720258,603,394-62,123-0.72Routine revision
2,023Output2024858.52025863.14.60.54Routine revision
2,024Establishments2025830,8762026821,837-9,039-1.09Routine revision
2,024Employment20258,792,42320268,735,908-56,515-0.64Routine revision
2,024Output2025896.92026897.10.20.03Routine revision
2,023Establishments2025811,2472026808,911-2,336-0.29Routine revision
2,023Employment20258,603,39420268,596,340-7,054-0.08Routine revision
2,023Output2025863.12026877.414.31.66Routine revision
2,022Establishments2025788,6832026788,68300Routine revision
2,022Establishments2024788,9142025788,683-231-0.03Routine revision
Source: Franchise Consultants and Brokers analysis of IFA Franchising Economic Outlook editions 2010 to 2026. Download CSV
Franchise units are counted by location, so a single owner can add several establishments without adding a firm.
Franchise units are counted by location, so a single owner can add several establishments without adding a firm.

Employment and output: where recent forecasts ran high

Employment forecasts were close through 2023 and drifted high in 2024 and 2025; output forecasts stayed close until 2025. Employment was over-forecast in each year from 2022 to 2025 (0.12%, 0.31%, 1.07% and 2.47%). The 2025 edition expected US franchise employment to pass 9 million (9,005,757); the 2026 edition estimates 8,788,313, growth of 0.6%.

Output is reported in nominal dollars. The 2025 edition projected $936.4 billion for 2025; the 2026 edition estimates $907.3 billion, growth of 1.1%, and projects $921.4 billion for 2026. The 2026 edition also raised its output history: 2023 output is $877.4 billion, against $863.1 billion a year earlier, while 2023 establishments were cut. Output and unit counts are therefore not revised together.

Franchise GDP is estimated at $549.9 billion for 2025 and projected at $558.4 billion for 2026; the executive summary gives the 2026 growth as 1.8% while the edition’s own table rounds it to 1.6%.

Figure 3Forecast error by measure, US franchise sector, 2012 to 2025 (comparable years)Positive = projection above the next edition's estimate; 2020 omitted (errors of 4% to 22%)
EstablishmentsEmploymentOutput0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%2.3%2.5%3.2%2012201420152017201820212022202320242025
Source: IFA Franchising Economic Outlook editions 2012 to 2026; Franchise Consultants and Brokers scorecard. Download data (CSV)

Which franchise sectors are growing fastest

The 2026 edition projects the fastest 2026 establishment growth in child services (4.3%), commercial and residential services (3.2%) and retail (2.3%), and the slowest in quick service restaurants (0.4%), real estate (0.4%) and automotive (0.2%). IFA’s press release lists child services and commercial and residential services at 3.2% each, and the report narrative gives commercial and residential services 3.1%, so small differences between IFA summaries are rounding or editing, not new data.

The fastest-growing sector changes from edition to edition partly because the business lines change. The 2025 edition used 8 lines and named personal services (4.3%) and retail food, products and services (3.5%) as fastest for 2025. The 2026 edition uses 11 lines, and for the same year (2022) and the same total (788,683) it shows 43.6% more quick service restaurants and 81.0% fewer personal services establishments than the 2025 edition. Sector rankings should be compared only within one edition. For category ideas, see franchise ideas.

Figure 4Projected 2026 growth in US franchise establishments, selected business linesThree fastest and three slowest of 11 lines, plus health and wellness
Child services4.3%Commercial and residential services3.2%Retail2.3%Health and wellness2.1%Quick service restaurants0.4%Real estate0.4%Automotive0.2%
Source: IFA/FRANdata, 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook, PDF p. 24 (selected rows). Download data (CSV)
Table 4Same year, two editions: 2022 US franchise establishments by business line, 2025 vs 2026 edition
Business line2022 per 2025 edition2022 per 2026 editionDifference (%)
Quick service restaurants191,605275,13043.6
Lodging35,49650,32841.8
Commercial and residential services77,695101,87731.1
Personal services116,88222,253-81
Real estate68,46628,239-58.8
All business lines (grand total)788,683788,6830
Source: IFA/FRANdata 2025 Franchising Economic Outlook (PDF p. 8) and 2026 edition (PDF p. 24), selected rows; differences computed by Franchise Consultants and Brokers. Download CSV

Definitional breaks: why franchise totals jump between editions

Four definitional or methodological breaks separate the published levels:

  • 2011 edition (PwC): rebased on the first Census franchise report (2007 Economic Census) and stated that it supersedes earlier editions; 2009 fell from 883,292 to 763,094 (-13.61%).
  • 2012 edition (IHS Global Insight): new provider; its 2007 level (770,835) is 2.21% below PwC’s (788,285).
  • 2017 edition (IHS Markit): rebased to PwC’s 2016 study, which counted 732,842 business-format establishments and 801,153 once 68,311 product-distribution franchises are added (the 2010 outlook describes these as automotive and truck dealers, gasoline service stations and beverage bottlers). The outlook series follows the business-format number.
  • 2020 edition (FRANdata): new provider and 8 business lines instead of 10; levels moved little. The 2026 edition moved to 11 lines.

Growth rates survive these breaks better than levels: in 2016 the projected growth (1.7%) matched the later estimate (1.7%) even though the level fell by 7.9% on rebasing. That is why the scorecard reports both.

How Census Bureau measures compare with the IFA series

The Census Bureau’s two franchise measures are narrower than the IFA series and answer different questions.

Economic Census (establishments). Franchise status is asked only in selected industries and only of employer establishments, and it relies on respondents: establishments that answered the franchise question accounted for a receipts-weighted 76.2% of sales in the surveyed industries in 2007 and 72.6% in 2012. Summed across published industries it found 453,326 franchise establishments in 2007, 409,104 in 2012 and 498,234 in 2017 (the Bureau’s own 2017 headline is 498,328). That is 58.8%, 54.7% and 66.5% of the IFA-series figure for the same years. Census also counts product-distribution franchises such as 21,637 new car dealers (2017), which the outlook’s business-format basis does not cover, so its 2017 count of paid employees at franchise establishments (9,589,918) exceeds the outlook’s 2017 employment figure (7,881,000 in the 2018 edition).

Annual Business Survey (firms). The ABS asks employer firms whether all or part of the business operates as a franchise. The share was 4.9% in reference year 2019 and 4.7% in reference year 2023 (standard error 0.1 point), while the IFA establishment series rose 4.56% over the same years. A franchisee with five units is one firm and five establishments, so flat firm shares and rising unit counts can both be right. ABS firm counts are not a time series: the 2019 ABS (reference year 2018) was mailed to about 300,000 businesses and the 2023 ABS (reference year 2022) to about 850,000. Each ABS is named for the year after the data it covers: the 2024 ABS covers reference year 2023, and its bulk tables are the AB2300 files.

Neither Census source contradicts slow positive growth. The Economic Census shows faster growth from 2012 to 2017 (4.06% a year in matched industries) than the outlook series (1.65% a year, 2013 to 2017), but part of that gap can come from changes in how many establishments answer the franchise question. Owner characteristics from the ABS are covered in franchise owner demographics.

Table 5Census Bureau franchise counts vs the IFA series, US, 2007 to 2023
SourceUnit countedFranchise countFranchise share (%)IFA series, same yearCensus as % of IFA
Economic Census 2007Establishments (employer, covered industries)453,32610.45770,835 (2012 edition)58.8
Economic Census 2012Establishments (employer, covered industries)409,1049.84747,359 (2014 edition)54.7
Economic Census 2017Establishments (employer, covered industries)498,23411.41748,752 (2020 edition)66.5
Annual Business Survey, reference year 2019 (2020 ABS)Employer firms answering130,4924.9773,603 establishmentsn/a
Annual Business Survey, reference year 2020 (2021 ABS)Employer firms answering116,9464.8753,770 establishmentsn/a
Annual Business Survey, reference year 2021 (2022 ABS)Employer firms answering138,9144.7774,965 establishmentsn/a
Annual Business Survey, reference year 2022 (2023 ABS)Employer firms answering129,0344.6788,683 establishmentsn/a
Annual Business Survey, reference year 2023 (2024 ABS)Employer firms answering135,5054.7808,911 establishmentsn/a
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Census 2007, 2012, 2017 and Annual Business Survey bulk files for reference years 2019 to 2023; IFA outlook editions as listed. Download CSV
Figure 5Franchise share of US employer firms, Annual Business Survey, reference years 2019 to 2023Firms answering the franchise question; standard error 0.1 point each year
0.0%1.2%2.5%3.8%5.0%4.7%20192020202120222023
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey, reference years 2019 to 2023 (2020 to 2024 ABS; files AB1900 to AB2300 CSCB01). Download data (CSV)

Source grades and the rubric

Grades rate how much weight a source can carry for growth estimates, not the quality of the organization. Tier follows the fact-sheet convention (1 = government or primary, 2 = industry research, 3 = summaries).

Table 6Source grades for US franchise industry growth evidence (A/B/C rubric)
SourcePublisherGradeTierWhy
Economic Census franchise status 2007, 2012, 2017U.S. Census BureauA1Full enumeration of surveyed industries; employer establishments only; latest year 2017.
Annual Business Survey, reference years 2019 to 2023 (OPFRAN)U.S. Census BureauA1Probability sample with published standard errors; firms, not establishments.
County Business Patterns 2017, 2023U.S. Census BureauA1Administrative count of employer establishments; no franchise flag; context only.
FTC Franchise Rule information-collection notice (2026)Federal Trade CommissionB1Staff burden estimate of about 4,000 franchisors; not a survey.
Franchising Economic Outlook, 2020 to 2026 editionsFRANdata for IFAB2Published method and annual series; proprietary inputs; revises prior years.
Franchise Business Economic Outlook, 2012 to 2018 editionsIHS Global Insight / IHS Markit for IFA FoundationB2Econometric forecasts; rebased in 2017 to the PwC 2016 benchmark.
Franchise Business Economic Outlook, 2010 and 2011PwC for IFA Educational FoundationB2Earlier bases; superseded by later editions.
Economic Impact of Franchised Businesses, Vol. IV (2016)PwC for IFA FoundationB2Built on the 2012 Economic Census plus FRANdata and D&B; the 2016 benchmark.
IFA Franchisor Survey 2025IFA with FRANdataC2229 responding brands; not a probability sample.
IFA press releases (2024, 2025, 2026) and 2026 one-pagerInternational Franchise AssociationC3Summaries; some figures differ from the underlying report (see text).
Source: Franchise Consultants and Brokers assessment; rubric in the verdict section. Download CSV

What the evidence shows

  1. US franchise establishments are estimated at 832,521 in 2025, up 1.3% from 821,837 in 2024 (2026 edition). IFA/FRANdata 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook, PDF p. 9
  2. The 2026 edition projects 845,009 US franchise establishments in 2026, growth of 1.5%. IFA/FRANdata 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook, PDF p. 9
  3. The 2025 edition projected 851,402 establishments for 2025; the 2026 edition estimates 832,521, a 2.27% over-forecast (18,881 units). Derived from the 2025 and 2026 editions
  4. US franchise employment was forecast at 9,005,757 for 2025 and estimated at 8,788,313 a year later, a 2.47% over-forecast. Derived from the 2025 and 2026 editions
  5. US franchise output was forecast at $936.4 billion for 2025 and estimated at $907.3 billion (nominal), a 3.21% over-forecast. Derived from the 2025 and 2026 editions
  6. Over 9 comparable forecast years from 2012 to 2025, the mean absolute error on US franchise establishments was 0.55% and the mean signed error +0.23%. Derived scorecard, 13 editions
  7. Including the 2020 pandemic year and the 2018 provider change, the mean absolute error on establishments rises to 0.84% (2012 to 2025, US). Derived scorecard
  8. The 2020 edition projected 785,316 US franchise establishments for 2020; the 2021 edition estimated 753,770, a 4.19% miss caused by the pandemic. IFA/FRANdata 2020 and 2021 editions
  9. The 2026 edition revised US franchise establishments for 2024 from 830,876 to 821,837 (-1.09%). IFA/FRANdata 2025 and 2026 editions
  10. The January 2017 edition rebased the series to PwC’s 2016 business-format benchmark, moving the 2015 US establishment count from 782,573 to 720,458 (-7.94%). IFA Foundation 2016 and 2017 outlooks (IHS)
  11. The 2017 Economic Census counted 498,234 franchise establishments with paid employees in the US industries it surveyed, 11.41% of all establishments in those industries. U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Economic Census franchise status
  12. In 262 industries published in both censuses, Census franchise establishments rose 21.99% from 2012 to 2017 (4.06% a year), against 1.65% a year in the IFA series for 2013 to 2017. U.S. Census Bureau Economic Census 2012 and 2017; IFA outlooks
  13. The franchise share of US employer firms answering the Annual Business Survey was 4.9% in reference year 2019 and 4.7% in reference year 2023 (standard error 0.1 point). U.S. Census Bureau, ABS reference years 2019 and 2023
  14. US franchise employment was estimated at 8,788,313 jobs in 2025 and is projected at 8,944,955 for 2026 (2026 edition). IFA/FRANdata 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook, PDF p. 9

What's new

As of October 4, 2026
  • 2026-02-19: IFA released the 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook (FRANdata). It estimates 832,521 US franchise establishments in 2025 and projects 845,009 for 2026.
  • 2026-02-19: the 2026 edition revised 2024 establishments down to 821,837 from 830,876 and 2023 down to 808,911 from 811,247.
  • 2026-02-19: the 2026 edition regrouped franchising into 11 business lines (the 2025 edition used 8), so sector figures in the two editions are not comparable.
  • January 2025 (latest public franchisor survey): in IFA’s 2025 Franchisor Survey of 229 brands, 48% of executives expected franchisee employment to rise and 56% reported growth constrained by labor, down from 81% in 2023. IFA’s survey page still listed the 2025 survey as the latest when checked on 2026-10-04.
  • 2026-12-03: the data.census.gov release calendar lists a ‘2024 Annual Business Survey’ release. The 2024 ABS covers reference year 2023, the year of the latest franchise share used here (released through the Census API); the calendar does not say which further tables are due.
  • Still missing: the 2022 Economic Census release schedule lists no US franchise-status table (only a Puerto Rico table), so 2017 remains the latest Census establishment count.

Questions people ask

How many franchises are in the US?

About 832,521 franchise establishments in 2025, according to the 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook (IFA/FRANdata). The 2017 Economic Census counted 498,234 franchise establishments with paid employees in the industries it surveyed. By brand, FTC staff estimate about 4,000 franchisors are covered by the Franchise Rule (2026), while FRANdata says its model tracks about 9,000 brands.

Is the franchise industry growing?

Yes, slowly. US franchise establishments grew an estimated 1.3% in 2025 and 1.46% a year from 2015 to 2025 (IFA/FRANdata latest vintages). The 2026 edition projects 1.5% growth in 2026. The Census franchise share of employer firms was flat at 4.9% to 4.7% from reference year 2019 to 2023.

What is the fastest growing franchise sector?

For 2026, the 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook projects child services (4.3%) and commercial and residential services (3.2%) as the fastest-growing business lines by establishments, with quick service restaurants at 0.4%. The 2025 edition named personal services (4.3%) for 2025, but the business lines were redefined in 2026, so the two rankings are not comparable.

How much does franchising contribute to the US economy?

The 2026 edition estimates US franchise output at $907.3 billion and franchise GDP at $549.9 billion in 2025 (nominal), projecting $921.4 billion and $558.4 billion for 2026. The 2017 Economic Census recorded $1.73 trillion in sales at franchise establishments in surveyed industries, a different measure that includes new car dealers and covers only surveyed industries.

How many people work in franchising?

An estimated 8,788,313 people in 2025, projected to reach 8,944,955 in 2026 (2026 Franchising Economic Outlook). Employment growth slowed to 0.6% in 2025, and the 2025 edition’s forecast of 9,005,757 for 2025 proved 2.47% too high. The 2017 Economic Census counted 9,589,918 paid employees at franchise establishments in surveyed industries.

Frequently asked questions

How fast is the US franchise industry growing in 2026?

The 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook projects 1.5% growth in US franchise establishments in 2026, from 832,521 to 845,009, with employment up 1.8% and nominal output up 1.6%. These are projections made in February 2026.

How accurate are the IFA franchise growth forecasts?

Over 9 comparable years from 2012 to 2025, establishment forecasts differed from the next edition’s estimate by 0.55% on average (bias +0.23%). Employment forecasts missed by 0.73% and output by 0.9% on average.

Did the 2025 franchise forecast come true?

No. The 2025 edition projected 851,402 US franchise establishments, 2.5% growth; the 2026 edition estimates 832,521, 1.3% growth, a 2.27% over-forecast. Employment and output were over-forecast by 2.47% and 3.21%.

Did franchising beat its 2024 forecast?

It depends on the vintage. The 2025 edition estimated 2024 at 830,876, above the 821,589 projection, and IFA said franchising exceeded expectations. The 2026 edition revised 2024 to 821,837, within 0.03% of the projection.

Why do franchise establishment totals differ between sources?

Definitions differ. The 2011 outlook explained that it supplemented Census data with estimates for industries the Census does not survey and for businesses without paid employees; PwC’s 2016 study counted 801,153 establishments once product-distribution franchises were added; the Economic Census counts only employer establishments in surveyed industries (498,234 in 2017).

Has the franchise establishment series ever been rebased?

Yes, at least three times. The 2011 edition rebased on the 2007 Economic Census (-13.61% for 2009), the 2012 edition changed provider (-2.21% for 2007), and the 2017 edition rebased to PwC’s 2016 benchmark (-7.94% for 2015).

What happened to franchising in 2020?

US franchise establishments fell 2.6% to 753,770 in 2020, according to the 2021 edition, against a pre-pandemic forecast of 1.5% growth to 785,316. Employment fell 11.2% to about 7.5 million.

Does the Census Bureau publish current franchise counts?

Not for establishments: the 2017 Economic Census is the latest US franchise-status table, and the 2022 release schedule lists only a Puerto Rico table. The Annual Business Survey reports the franchise share of employer firms each year; the latest is the 2024 ABS, covering reference year 2023.

What share of US businesses are franchises?

4.7% of employer firms answering the 2024 Annual Business Survey (reference year 2023) operated all or part of the business as a franchise. In the industries the 2017 Economic Census surveyed, franchises were 11.41% of establishments. PwC put franchised establishments at 2.3% of all nonfarm business establishments in 2016.

Is franchise growth faster than the economy?

In units, no clear evidence of that over the decade: establishments grew about 1.46% a year (2015 to 2025) and the Census franchise share of employer firms was flat at 4.9% to 4.7% (reference years 2019 to 2023). Nominal output grew 2.24% a year from 2019 to 2025, before inflation.

For journalists

Most quotable statistics

If you cite only a few, cite these

  • The 2025 Franchising Economic Outlook over-forecast 2025 US franchise establishments by 2.27% (851,402 projected vs 832,521 estimated). source
  • Across 9 comparable years from 2012 to 2025, the industry’s establishment forecasts missed by 0.55% on average, with a +0.23% upward bias. source
  • US franchise establishments grew an estimated 1.3% in 2025, to 832,521, according to the 2026 IFA/FRANdata Franchising Economic Outlook. source
Press summary and suggested headlines

An evidence review by Franchise Consultants and Brokers scored 16 editions of the industry's annual Franchising Economic Outlook, published for the International Franchise Association from 2010 to 2026, against each following edition and against Census Bureau data. US franchise establishments grew about 1.46% a year from 2015 to 2025 and an estimated 1.3% in 2025, to 832,521. Across nine comparable years, establishment forecasts missed by 0.55% on average, with a slight upward bias, so the forecasts are usually close. The 2025 forecast was the largest miss outside the pandemic and rebasing years: 2.27% too high on establishments and 2.47% on employment. Revisions matter as much as forecasts: the 2026 edition cut its 2024 estimate by 1.09%, erasing the reported 2024 beat. Census data show a flat franchise share of employer firms, 4.9% to 4.7% between 2019 and 2023. Data tables are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0.

Suggested headlines

  • Franchising grew 1.3% in 2025, half the pace its own forecast expected
  • Industry forecasts for franchise growth miss by 0.55% on average, but 2025 missed by 2.27%
  • Franchise employment forecasts ran high four years in a row
  • Revision erases franchising's reported 2024 beat
  • Census data show franchise share of US employer firms flat near 4.7%

Methodology

Sources and selection. We downloaded every Franchising Economic Outlook edition we could locate on franchise.org, frandata.com, educatedfranchisee.com and the Wayback Machine: 2010 (PwC), 2011 (PwC fact sheet), 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2016 (IHS Global Insight; 2016 as the published infographic summary), January and August 2017 and 2018 (IHS Markit), and 2020 to 2026 (FRANdata). The 2013 and 2019 editions were not located. Figures were read from the PDFs with pdftotext and each one is checked by script against the cited PDF page. Census figures come from www2.census.gov bulk files (Economic Census franchise status 2007, 2012, 2017; Annual Business Survey, reference years 2019 to 2023; County Business Patterns 2017 and 2023).

Scorecard rules. Each edition’s projection for its own year is compared with the next available edition’s estimate for that year (first comparison) and, where available, with the latest edition on the same basis. Level error = (projection – estimate) / estimate. Growth error = projected % change minus the later % change, both as printed. Years where the later edition rebased the series (2010, 2011, 2016) are shown but excluded from averages; 2018 (provider change) and 2020 (pandemic) are reported separately. Averages use the 9 comparable years 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2021 to 2025.

Conflicts. Where an IFA press release or one-pager differs from the report (for example 2.2% vs 2.4% for 2024 establishment growth, or 3.1% vs 3.2% for commercial and residential services), we use the report’s table and note the difference. Census and IFA figures are never merged into one series because units and scope differ.

Limitations. Outlook figures are estimates by commissioned firms using proprietary databases; ‘actuals’ in this review are later estimates, not audited counts. Output is nominal. ABS counts depend on sample design; shares are more comparable than counts. ABS years: the Census Bureau names each ABS for its collection year, which is the year after the reference year it covers (the 2024 ABS covers reference year 2023, per census.gov ABS API page 2024; the matching API vintage is api.census.gov/data/2023/abscb, YEAR 2023). We label ABS figures by reference year, which matches the bulk-file prefix (AB1900 = 2019 to AB2300 = 2023). No IFA table is reproduced in full; figures are cited individually by edition and page.

Last updated 2026-10-04. Next update: after the 2027 Franchising Economic Outlook (expected February 2027) and the next ABS release listed on the Census calendar (2026-12-03).

Sources and source quality

Tier 1: primary and government sources (21)

  1. 2017 Economic Census: Franchise Status (EC1700FRAN), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  2. 2012 Economic Census: Franchise Status (EC1200CFRA1), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  3. 2007 Economic Census: Franchise Status (EC0700CFRA1), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  4. Annual Business Survey, reference year 2019 (2020 ABS), Characteristics of Businesses (AB1900CSCB01), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  5. Annual Business Survey, reference year 2020 (2021 ABS), Characteristics of Businesses (AB2000CSCB01), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  6. Annual Business Survey, reference year 2021 (2022 ABS), Characteristics of Businesses (AB2100CSCB01), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  7. Annual Business Survey, reference year 2022 (2023 ABS), Characteristics of Businesses (AB2200CSCB01), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  8. Annual Business Survey, reference year 2023 (2024 ABS), Characteristics of Businesses (AB2300CSCB01), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  9. County Business Patterns 2023, US file, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  10. County Business Patterns 2017, US file, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  11. Annual Business Survey (ABS) APIs, 2024 ABS page, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  12. Annual Business Survey (ABS) APIs, 2020 ABS page, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  13. Census Data API, ABS company characteristics 2023 vintage, YEAR variable, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  14. Annual Business Survey Methodology 2023, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  15. Annual Business Survey Methodology 2021, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  16. Annual Business Survey Methodology 2019, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  17. 2022 Economic Census Data Releases, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  18. data.census.gov Upcoming Releases, U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  19. Franchising in America: Key Data from the 2017 Economic Census (webinar slides, 2021-09-01), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  20. Census Data API dataset catalog (data.json), U.S. Census Bureau (accessed 2026-10-04)
  21. Agency Information Collection Activities; Franchise Rule (91 FR, 2026-05-05), Federal Trade Commission (Federal Register) (accessed 2026-10-04)

Tier 2: trade bodies, market research, company filings (18)

  1. 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook (2026-02-19), FRANdata for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  2. 2025 Franchising Economic Outlook (February 2025), FRANdata for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  3. 2024 Franchising Economic Outlook (February 2024), FRANdata for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  4. 2023 Franchising Economic Outlook (March 2023), FRANdata for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  5. 2022 Franchising Economic Outlook (February 2022), FRANdata for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  6. 2021 Economic Outlook for Franchising (February 2021), FRANdata for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  7. Franchise Business Economic Outlook 2020 (January 2020), FRANdata for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  8. Franchise Business Economic Outlook for 2018 (January 2018), IHS Markit Economics for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  9. Franchise Business Economic Outlook: August 2017 Forecast (August 2017), IHS Markit Economics for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  10. Franchise Business Economic Outlook for 2017 (January 2017), IHS Markit Economics for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  11. 2016 Franchise Business Economic Outlook (infographic summary) (January 2016), IHS Global Insight for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  12. Franchise Business Economic Outlook: January 2015 Forecast (January 2015), IHS Global Insight for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  13. Franchise Business Economic Outlook: January 2014 Forecast (January 2014), IHS Global Insight for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  14. The Franchise Business Economic Outlook: 2012 (December 2011), IHS Global Insight for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  15. Highlights of the 2011 Franchise Business Economic Outlook (fact sheet) (January 2011), PwC for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  16. 2010 Franchise Business Economic Outlook (December 2009), PricewaterhouseCoopers for the International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  17. The Economic Impact of Franchised Businesses, Volume IV (2016), PwC for the IFA Foundation (accessed 2026-10-04)
  18. 2025 IFA Franchisor Survey, International Franchise Association with FRANdata (accessed 2026-10-04)

Tier 3: journalism and commentary (4)

  1. 2026 Franchising Economic Outlook one-pager, International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  2. IFA Predicts Steady Growth for Franchising in 2026 (2026-02-19), International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  3. For Second Consecutive Year, Franchising Exceeds Economic Expectations (2025-02-05), International Franchise Association (accessed 2026-10-04)
  4. New Data Shows Franchising Continues to Exceed Growth Expectations (2024-02-14), International Franchise Association via PR Newswire (accessed 2026-10-04)

Guides that use this data

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How to cite and reuse

Franchise Consultants and Brokers Editorial Team. "Franchise Industry Growth: How Fast It Really Is and How Accurate the Forecasts Have Been." Franchise Consultants and Brokers, updated October 4, 2026. https://franchiseconsultantsandbrokers.com/research/franchise-industry-growth/

The data tables and charts on this page are licensed under CC BY 4.0. Please credit “Franchise Consultants and Brokers, franchiseconsultantsandbrokers.com” with a link to this page.

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